TechRadar is part of Future US Inc, an international media group and leading digital publisher. That, and Edward Snowden's NSA online surveillance revelations, are mere asides in the fight against governments who think it is their right to switch the internet on and off. This for a network-neutral service! And this will trump all other concerns.”, Josh Calder, a futurist with the Foresight Alliance, expressed confidence that threats to Net neutrality will be routed around. However, could this blind […] For a long time I’ve felt that the utopianism, libertarianism, and sheer technological skill of both professional and amateur programmers and engineers would remain the strongest counterbalance to these restrictive institutional pressures, but I’m increasingly unsure as the technologists themselves and their skills are being increasingly restricted, marginalized, and even criminalized.”, Jeremy Epstein, a senior computer scientist at SRI International, responded, “The extension of copyright terms back into the near-infinite past will reduce what can be shared. Internet Danger #3: Pornography. These are understood as growing forces of concentration, vertical and horizontal integration, and shrinking opportunities for market entry and competition. Introduction, routers and government censorship. When participants in this canvassing were asked about access and sharing in 2025 they were also provided with the following additional prompts, to which some replied and some did not: Please elaborate on your answer—Describe what you believe are the most serious threats to the most effective accessing and sharing of content on the Internet. Thirty-five percent answered “yes” while 65% more optimistically answered “no.” Yet some who answered “no” wrote in their elaboration on the question that their answer was their “hope” and not necessarily their prediction. Quiz: Where do you fit in the political typology? Luckily, the country's constitutional court overturned the ban after two weeks. David Clark, a senior research scientist at MIT’s Computer Science and Artificial Intelligence Laboratory, noted, “Commercialization of the experience may come to bound or limit the expectation that many people have of what the Internet is for.” And Glenn Edens, director of research in networking, security, and distributed systems at PARC, said, “Network operators’ desire to monetize their assets to the detriment of progress represents the biggest potential problem. A significant number of respondents predicted that increased monetization of Internet activities will hurt the ways in which people receive information in the future. The impact on consumers’ lives and corporate business models is rapidly incre… Last year, the Internet Society published a comprehensive study to better understand the forces of change that will shape the Internet over the next five to seven years: The 2017 Global Internet Report: Paths to Our Digital Future:. I would like to see the Internet come to be regarded as a public utility, as broadcast spectrum was, but I think the concentration of power is too extreme for that degree of freedom to happen.”, Bill Woodcock, executive director for the Packet Clearing House, wrote, “The biggest and most important challenges we face are the impediments to people ‘doing for themselves.’ I don’t care about the ‘right’ to simply be someone’s customer. The fact that a few corporations dominate large parts of the Internet is not news. If we aren’t ready to make the courts take ownership of the Net and its implications, then a free Internet is history, since the service providers have no interest in the free flow of information.”. "While there are extreme scenarios like natural disasters and terrorist attacks that can cause disruption to the web, it is actually far more commonplace to see the internet fall foul due to shortcomings with routine maintenance and operations, such as hardware upgrades," says Mike Palladino, director of IP infrastructure and operations at internet hosting company Internap in Atlanta, US. Increasing power of patent trolls will slow progress and put more energy into working around solutions, instead of moving forward.”, A self-employed consultant focusing on Internet policy and technology and longtime IETF leader responded, “We are headed into a really nasty period for accessibility of digital materials more than a few years old. internet as a threat to old media Introduction Just a few clicks on the mouse and a whole world of information are available for free. Already access and sharing are hindered by parochial national laws. "It's putting many organisations on a collision course with network instability over the coming months and years as millions of legacy routers hit their physical limits," thinks Palladino. Key Insights: Expert Views on Threats to the Internet, So far, Trump has granted clemency less frequently than any president in modern history, What Biden and Trump voters say they want the other candidate’s supporters to know about them. That is the real singularity.”, Matthew Henry, a CIO in higher education, wrote, “Continued redefinition of the standards and cooperation of firms that enable sharing is critical.”, The principal engineer for an Internet of Things development company responded, “Access to the global Internet (with its associated content) will just keep getting better as that is how governments/industry will make money. © "When the Turkish prime minister banned Twitter, tweets about the ban and from Turkey increased significantly," says Dinah Alobeid at the New York office of analyst company Brandwatch. Over half of major new business processes and systems will incorporate some element of IoT by 2020, assures Gartner. A notable number of these expert respondents also mentioned Edward Snowden’s revelations about the U.S. National Security Agency’s (NSA) surveillance of email and phone call records. Almost nothing gets done without it nowadays. An open, nonbinding forum that meets annually to allow global Internet governance issues to be debated and discussed by government, business and civil society - on equal terms. We've all heard about bugs like Shellshock and the 512k router problem, but are there other menaces that could bring down the worldwide web? (For more details on this process, please see the section at the end of this report titled “About this Canvassing of Experts.” Respondents were allowed to choose to share their thoughts for credit or anonymously. With over seven billion people on the planet and approximately 40% of them online, the internet is one of the most important resources to protect, but is it completely protected? While the Internet brought upon convenience for individuals to make online purchases, this also created yet another way for cybercriminals to steal personal information and to distribute malware. Integrity threats: hackers who can manipulate data entries can do things ranging from changing grades in a class to changing the amount of money in bank accounts. The latter's latest effort is Green Dam, a piece of web censorship software that will soon be pre-installed inside every computer sold in China. Over the next 10 years we will be even more increasingly global and involved. Unfortunately, the interests of everyday users count for very little.”, Dennis McCann, a director of computer training in Illinois, formerly a senior technical consultant at Cisco and IBM wrote, “The policy discussions today that are about service provision are mostly with last generation’s telecommunications companies. Nomophobia is, “the modern fear of being unable to communicate through a mobile phone or internet” and is closely associated with the panic disorder known as Agoraphobia (fear of loss) (Gutiérrez et al.). This will grow. Those who expressed hope or the expectation that access and sharing will weather challenges between now and 2025 often noted that it may be possible that billions more people may gain access and begin sharing online over the next 11 years thanks to the mobile Internet revolution and the massive efforts underway now to connect more people across the globe. (Image: Wikimedia), Introduction, routers and government censorship, The NSA might be monitoring, but other governments actively switch off the internet, Disasters, security flaws and network outages, Microsoft Teams is getting a new feature you won't believe we've lived without until now, Walmart promises more PS5 and Xbox Series X stock ‘soon’, Google is finally fixing one of Chrome's most annoying issues on Windows 10, Where to buy PS5: all the latest restock updates, Microsoft Teams wants to solve one of the most frustrating aspects of remote working, Why the Samsung Galaxy S21 may last you four years, 7 new TV shows and movies on Netflix, Amazon Prime, Disney Plus and more this weekend. Threats to our safety and security are increasing. A share of these experts express new urgency about surveillance. 1615 L St. NW, Suite 800Washington, DC 20036USA This is the real baddie. In short, they hope that the benefits of digital expansion will outweigh the risks. Whether they offered an optimistic or pessimistic view of the Web’s future, all of the experts were asked to offer their own perspective on the threats or risks facing the Web, and their open-ended responses raise a number of key concerns. Sharing freely will be recognized as having greater long-term economic value than strictly limited controls over ‘intellectual property.’”. Numbers, Facts and Trends Shaping Your World. Reference librarians played this role when we went to the information repository called a library. The rapid expansion of devices that are connected to the internet and weaved into our everyday life is remarkable. As the volume of information continues to grow exponentially, personal information trainers will help us with the much more daunting task of creating a virtual dashboard to access the information of value to us, much of which we did not know was out there.”. Continued. The next few years are going to be about control.danah boyd, a research scientist for Microsoft, Peter S. Vogel, Internet law expert at Gardere Wynne Sewell, responded, “Privacy issues are the most serious threat to accessing and sharing Internet content in 2014, and there is little reason to expect that to change by 2025, particularly given the cyber terror threats confronting the Internet users and worldwide businesses.”, Raymond Plzak, former CEO of the American Registry for Internet Numbers, and current member of the Board of Directors of ICANN, wrote, “The inconsistent protection of privacy, whether private information is voluntarily provided or not as well as the inconsistent protection against exploitation will continue to be the bane of connected environment. The inability of local, regional/national and international private and public sector entities and their attendant societies to cooperate to produce a universal accepted privacy and anti-exploitation environment will increase the likelihood of the limiting of connected activities.”, Kate Crawford, a professor and research scientist, responded, “The increased Balkanisation of the Internet is a possible outcome of the Snowden revelations, as people seek to develop systems that are less accessible by the NSA/GCHQ, etc. Internet after all is not without enemies… The Internet has become the Archimedean point in our daily life. And they said they expect that technology innovation will continue to afford more new opportunities for people to connect. (+1) 202-419-4300 | Main Misinformed or disproportionate government responses will threaten freedoms, and … It's massively important, but is the net safe? Leah Lievrouw, a professor of information studies at the University of California-Los Angeles, wrote, “There are too many institutional players interested in restricting, controlling, and directing ‘ordinary’ people’s ability to make, access, and share knowledge and creative works online—intellectual property rights holders, law enforcement and security agencies, religious and cultural censors, political movements and parties, etc. 2. Current page: Many companies are getting caught off guard, Palladino believes, and smaller enterprises in particular could learn some very painful lessons. It won’t be a bloodless revolution, sadly, but it will be a revolution nonetheless.”, Kevin Carson, a senior fellow at the Center for a Stateless Society and contributor to the P2P Foundation blog wrote, “There’s a lot of work underway now in developing open-source, interoperable, and encrypted versions of social media, in response to the increasing authoritarianism and state collaboration of existing walled-garden media.”, Jim Hendler, a professor of Computer Science at Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute and architect of the Web, wrote, “If anything, it is privacy that will have to give way to openness, not the other way around… Repressive governments will be working hard to stop the spread of information. "Until we secure our cyber infrastructure, a few keystrokes and an Internet connection is all one needs to disable the economy and endanger lives," … Cybercrime, financial inequality, conflict, persecution, environmental threats, to name just a few. Not without a struggle. Power plants and other industries cut and burn trees to generate electricity. They pointed out that nations such as Egypt, Pakistan, and Turkey have blocked Internet access to control information flows when they perceived content as a threat to the current regime. Others cited governments’ application of broad rules that limit the exchange of all information in order to try to halt criminal activity. As today, there will be both good and bad news continually in that area, but over time more integration, access, and sharing will be a driving force.”. They argue that algorithm-based filtering systems inspired by attempts to cope with large amounts of information can have as many negative consequences for the Internet as positives, especially when most companies providing filtering services have economic incentives to present information in a particular way. People’s current prevailing optimism on those subjects is likely to turn out to be part of the problem.”. Sign up to get breaking news, reviews, opinion, analysis and more, plus the hottest tech deals! Others wrote that they wished they could choose “yes and no.”. Trust will evaporate in the wake of revelations about government and corporate surveillance and likely greater surveillance in the future. There was no explicit counter-argument to this theme, but some respondents’ answers implied that they felt algorithms and analytics and people’s own search strategies would improve and produce a relatively happy equilibrium where people got what they wanted and also were exposed to new ideas and material that they would appreciate. Visit our corporate site. Some respondents expressed a sense of hopelessness in the face of economic and political forces. Tech will assist this move in a way that is irreversible. Irrational fears of the Ebola virus in the U.S. arguably drove web interest in this fake news story, as it likely did for any number of legitimate articles written during the outbreak. These include the dangerous consequences of censorship, the … This is not to say they are pessimistic: The majority of respondents to this 2014 Future of the Internet canvassing say they hope that by 2025 there will not be significant changes for the worse and hindrances to the ways in which people get and share content online today. Governments are still learning how to respect the privacy of individuals’ communications in the context of criminal investigations. And who can forget the almost comical stance of Turkish Prime Minister Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who called social media "the worst menace to society" before banning it in April? Commercial pressures affecting everything from Internet architecture to the flow of information will endanger the open structure of online life. Britain, for example, has just determined that ISPs block sites the government considers ‘terrorist’ or otherwise dangerous. There was a problem. The chief counsel for a major foundation wrote, “Collusive and anti-competitive practices by telecommunications operators threaten the re-creation of an Internet controlled by people.” A post-doctoral researcher wrote, “We are seeing an increase in walled gardens created by giants like Facebook and Apple … Commercialization of the Internet, paradoxically, is the biggest challenge to the growth of the Internet. Cyberpunk 2077 gets a huge patch for PS4 and Xbox One, with PC fix for AMD Ryzen CPUs imminent. A survey that was conducted in 1990 by Equifax (one of the three biggest credit bureau companies in the USA) on the use of technology and the threat to the privacy of people, found that 79% of the respondents indicated that they were weary of the use of technology for the processing of their personal information (Frocht & Thomas, 1994, p. 24). They also cited such examples as the theft of customer account details from Target and corporate surveillance of consumers as giving ammunition to those who want to crack down on the content that flows online. New York, Actions by nation-states to maintain security and political control will lead to more blocking, filtering, segmentation, and balkanization of the Internet. To complete the subscription process, please click the link in the email we just sent you. Governments will become more skilled at blocking access to unwelcome sites.”, Christopher Wilkinson, a retired European Union official, board member for EURid.eu, and Internet Society leader predicted, “Surveillance … at the minimum chills communications and at the maximum facilitates industrial espionage, it does not have very much to do with security.”, Some participants also predicted that regional differences in politics and culture will continue to spawn efforts to hinder access and sharing online. Why isn't Nintendogs a mobile game already? Enabling content creators to easily and directly reach audiences, better search tools, better promotion mechanisms and curation tools—continuing to dismantle the ‘middle men’ is key.”. Palladino is talking about widely-deployed, older routers hitting their default 512k routing table limit, a problem that has this year seen websites and networks knocked down. Pew Research Center does not take policy positions. Because of governance issues (and the international implications of the NSA reveals), data sharing will get geographically fragmented in challenging ways. Pornography, hate speech, lurid threats -- these flourish alongside debates over the future of the Democratic Party and exchanges … There are theoretical threats – such as the Kremlin's plans to take control of the .ru domain and take Russia off the global internet during an 'emergency' – … A significant number of respondents predicted that increased monetization of Internet activities will hurt the ways in which people receive information in the future. (+1) 202-419-4372 | Media Inquiries. Nationalism, and sovereign interests—for good reasons (privacy protection) or bad (economic protectionism)—are clear and present threats.”, Dave Burstein, editor of Fast Net News, responded, “Governments worldwide are looking for more power over the Net, especially within their own countries. This type addiction has grown within our society due to the crucial role that cell phones play in our daily 1. Suggested Citation:"2 Types of Threats Associated with Information Technology Infrastructure. The challenge, of course, lies in our ability to identify those harms with sufficient clarity so that regulation would be effective without needlessly limiting the functionality of the network.”. Moreover, the evolution of the modern Internet has led to non-state actors, such as terrorists and hackers, posing security threats to states. And this number is expected to grow by more than three times to nearly 21 billion by the year 2020. 2003. "National Research Council. Technology consulting firm Gartner, Inc. projects that 6.4 billion connected things will be in use worldwide this year, up 30 % from last year. As Internet experts look to the future of the Web, they have a number of concerns. Computers and the Internet play a role in most transnational crimes today, … One of the worst dangers of the Internet, for many parents, is the idea that pornography could pop up and surprise their children. • Threats including data manipulation, identify theft, and cyberwarfare. They complained that much of that deliberation cannot be monitored or influenced by the broad public. Concerns over commercial influences altering the overall online experience were led by some of the architects of the Internet. It is a subsidiary of The Pew Charitable Trusts. Threats Logging interests cut down rain forest trees for timber used in flooring, furniture, and other items. Pervasive criminal activity in cyberspace not only directly affects its victims, but can imperil citizens’ and businesses’ faith in these digital systems, which are critical to our society and economy. Several themes ran through the elaborations people shared after these prompts, most of them centered on threats to the current structure and operation of the Internet: The experts in this survey noted a broad global trend toward regulation of the Internet by regimes that have faced protests and stepped up surveillance of Internet users. Availability threats: computer viruses that delete our data, or ransomware that encrypts our data and demands payment for the unlock key. While this is particularly important when you are looking for scientific or medical information, it is equally applicable when looking for restaurants, music, or other things that are matters of taste. Other observers find the amount -- and, above all, the kind of speech -- that the Internet has stimulated offensive or frightening. Now we talk about threats posed by that same online life: Spy agencies use it to perform mass surveillance on many if not all civilians. As the popularity of social media sites continuously grows, networks such as Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram continue to evolve. Please refresh the page and try again. What steps are necessary to block changes that would limit people’s optimal future capabilities in using the Internet? At around 500,000 routes – a figure that's increasing by around 1,000 routes per week – the growth of the global internet routing table shows no signs of slowing. I want the right to compete, the right to replace any service, no matter how large or important or well-connected the company that provides it is, with a better, more innovative, startup service. Corporations buy … For example, this morning I woke up and didn’t have to get out of bed before Alexa told me today’s weather and top stories and my iPhone gave me a traffic alert that it would take longer than usual to get to my 8AM meeting. First, cybercriminals create fake websites that offer goods at unbelievable prices to attract individuals. Inadequate management of cyber threats will put users increasingly at risk, undermine trust in the Internet and jeopardise its ability to act as a driver for economic and social innovation. It is undoubtedly the most reliable machine Man has ever made. on Society in the new Century 1 Introduction ... the Internet o ers the potential for global markets, certain factors, such as language, transport costs, local reputation, as well as di erences in the cost and ease of access to networks, attenuate this potential to a greater or lesser extent. Bonus question: Describe opportunities that you expect that will help people realize the fullest potential of the Internet, or describe challenges you expect may stop people from realizing the fullest potential of the Internet. Please deactivate your ad blocker in order to see our subscription offer, Are data centres safe? Thank you for signing up to TechRadar. At its best, the internet is no threat to our minds. Corporate goals to serve customers and shareholders can be in conflict with this. It is far more useful to explore the many avenues (vulnerabilities) open to these users and events, and to consider ways to prevent these occurrences and/or provide for rapid recovery. That means fewer monopolies, fewer lobbyists, fewer licenses, and fewer bribes. Joel Halpern, a distinguished engineer at Ericsson, wrote, “While there are pressures to constrain information sharing (from governments and from traditional content sources), the trend towards making information more widely and easily reached, consumed, modified, and redistributed is likely to continue in 2025 … The biggest challenge is likely to be the problem of finding interesting and meaningful content when you want it. But threats come in many forms. It conducts public opinion polling, demographic research, media content analysis and other empirical social science research. China is known for its “Great Firewall,” seen as Internet censorship by most outsiders, including those in this canvassing. While big-data analysis has the promise of helping this, there are many limitations and risks (including mismatched incentives) with those tools.”, Jonathan Grudin, principal researcher at Microsoft Research, predicted, “To help people realize their fullest potential, an industry of ‘personal information trainers’—by analogy to personal trainers for fitness—will form to help people find and access information that is interesting and useful for them. More than 1,400 people responded to the following yes-or-no question: Accessing and sharing content online—By 2025 will there be significant changes for the worse and hindrances to the ways in which people get and share content online compared with the way globally networked people can operate online today? Both will die away. A former chair of an IETF working group wrote, “Corporate influence on the political process will largely eliminate the public’s freedom to do as they please on the Internet at least in the US. Information Technology for Counterterrorism: Immediate Actions and Future Possibilities.Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. They predict that if unchecked, the monitoring of vast amounts of online activity will limit sharing and access to knowledge online. doi: 10.17226/10640. A fellow at a major university’s center for internet and society wrote, “I am worried that the ease with which hostile powers and trolls can manipulate public opinion will only increase and become more sophisticated, leading to voters having increasingly lower levels of factual information at their disposal or, worse yet, increasing apathy toward or cynicism about voting and the democratic process … "Some of the largest instances of internet outages weren't caused by natural disasters or terrorist attacks, but rather government censorship," says Brian Chappell, Director, Technical Services EMEAI & APAC at the Leeds office of BeyondTrust. Future US, Inc. 11 West 42nd Street, 15th Floor, This time it will be different. He responded, “Splintering based on corporate control of content and pipelines appears to be the greatest danger, at least in the developed world. It is another liberating extension of them, as significant as books, the abacus, the pocket calculator or the Sinclair Z80. It seems likely that steps will be taken to avoid barriers like an end to Net neutrality and the further erection of ‘walled gardens,’ and to keep the dangers of cybercrime sufficiently in check so that accessing content will not be significantly hindered.”, Clark Sept, co-founder and principal of Business Place Strategies Inc., wrote, “Online content access and sharing will be even better and easier by way of personal digital rights access. Meanwhile, the dominant content companies may seek ever more rigorous ways to prevent the flow of copyright content within and across borders.”, Oscar Gandy, an emeritus professor at the Annenberg School, University of Pennsylvania, wrote, “Regulatory limits on the uses of transaction-generated-information (TGI) that might even include fines and temporary exclusion from the marketplace might serve to reduce the amount of cognizable harm to individuals, groups, and institutions that rely on the Web for information and interaction. The pandemic also lays bare the many vulnerabilities created by society’s dependence on the internet. Among their concerns: the fate of network neutrality; restrictions on information exchange affected by copyright protections and patent law; and governments’ and corporations’ general lack of foresight and capability for best enabling the digital future due to a focus on near-term gains. Mohammad Ismail / Reuters Political uprising: The web has been cited as a catalyst for recent government coups and it has the potential to lead to uprisings around the globe. Some respondents cited the Arab Spring as an example of the power of the Internet to organize political dissent and they then commented on how this prompted crackdowns by governments. (+1) 202-857-8562 | Fax Censorship by the Chinese government was thought to be behind an internet outage in January that severed access to the web for hundreds of millions of people, while governments in both Libya and Egypt effectively banned the internet during the Arab Spring uprisings of 2011. The overuse of social media is a global problem impacting all generations, and research has shown that substantial internet usage can have a highly negative impact on our mental and emotional health. "What makes the problem even more challenging is that companies don't want the headache of fully migrating to IPv6, so they are trying to squeeze as much IPv4 out of the remaining allocations as possible, which is only adding to the inflation of the routing table.". Efforts to fix the TMI (too much information) problem might over-compensate and actually thwart content sharing. About Pew Research Center Pew Research Center is a nonpartisan fact tank that informs the public about the issues, attitudes and trends shaping the world. This is also true for the Internet economy, where we’ve seen some trends of consolidation in various markets. Its findings emerge from an “opt in” invitation to thousands of experts who have been identified by researching those who are widely quoted as technology builders and analysts and those who have made insightful predictions to our previous queries about the future of the Internet. 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